The thing is while the exhaustion dates vary a bit with changing circumstances, the general insolvency trend and the reasons for it have been projected and presented to Congress for decades.
Government has a tendency to put in place programs which over time become essential to many, if not all, citizens based on initial cost projections over ten years. They may or may not have dedicated funding. As the years go buy and additional funding is required, those requirements are ignored or additional funding is pushed down the road and a crisis is created.
It will be interesting to see what must be done to fix all this … or maybe not😩
A number of important federal programs — including Social Security and Medicare — are financed through dedicated revenue sources and managed through federal trust funds.
According to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest ten-year budget outlook, four major trust funds will exhaust their reserves within the next 11 years. Specifically, CBO estimates the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) will deplete its reserves in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund in FY 2024, the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) trust fund in FY 2026, and the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund in calendar year 2031.
CBO’s estimates exactly match projections we released in July of this year. For all four trust funds, CBO’s newest projections indicate an earlier expected insolvency date than was previously estimated.
CBO’s ten-year budget projections from March – which did not incorporate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic crisis – projected the HTF would deplete its reserves in 2022, the HI trust fund in 2026, the SSDI trust fund in 2028, and the OASI trust fund in 2032.