The Social Security COLA is a reflection of overall inflation although it is based on the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners, the CPI-W. There can be some, but not much variance among the various inflation measures.
In any case, as you can see below the Congressional Budget Office predicts rather low inflation for many years in the future. If you are retired or about to be, planning your budget, expenses or income growth should not include overly optimistic growth assumptions. It’s better to be surprised and happy than disappointed and in financial trouble.
It is essential that your retirement planning include a strategy that allows you to offset the impact of inflation over your entire retirement. For most people relying on Social Security alone will not get the job done.