Social Security

The Coming Crisis In Social Security

As the presidential election progresses you are going to hear a great deal about Social Security and Medicare and health care. Much of what you will hear is pure rhetoric; some of it plain nonsense. You will be hearing at lot from me as well on these subjects as I attempt to sort out the facts, ask questions and explore the possible consequences. 

Below are quotes directly from the trustee reports for Social Security. You know all those politicians who cry about fixing Social Security; ask them where they have been for the last sixteen years and why they have allowed the problem to get worse each year and why now they claim the solution is to tax only the “wealthy?”   

2000 Trustees Report

In the long range (i.e., the next 75 years) the difference between the summarized income and cost rates for the OASDI program is a deficit of 1.89 percent of taxable payroll based on the intermediate assumptions, which is smaller than the difference of 2.07 percent in last year’s report. The assets of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to be depleted under present law in 2037 based on the intermediate assumptions. At that time, the estimates indicate that annual tax revenues would be sufficient to cover 72 percent of annual expenditures.

2014 Trustees Report

For the 75-year projection period, the actuarial deficit is 2.88 percent of taxable payroll, 0.16 percentage point larger than in last year’s report. The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $10.6 trillion in present value and is $1.0 trillion more than the measured level of $9.6 trillion a year ago. If the assumptions, methods, starting values, and the law had all remained unchanged, the actuarial deficit would have increased to 2.78 percent of taxable payroll and the unfunded obligation would have risen to about $10.1 trillion due to the change in the valuation date. The remaining increase in the actuarial deficit and the unfunded obligation is primarily due to changes in methods, assumptions, and starting values.

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Categories: Social Security

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