Based on the current trend in the CPI-W there will be no Social Security COLA in 2016. Retirees better hope for a rising cost-of-living, or not. Since July, August and September 2014, each month thereafter has seen a lower CPI-W.
In order for there to be a COLA in 2016 the average CPI-W for July, August, September 2015 must exceed the average for the same period in 2014. It’s not looking good at the moment, but, of course, we have several months to go.